CORRECTION: This story was updated to reflect that Seattle could still reach the playoffs with a loss to Chicago on Thursday night.
The Seattle Seahawks no longer have control of their own destiny in the NFC West race.
After their latest setback, they now need some help from a division rival.
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Seattle entered Sunday tied with the Los Angeles Rams atop the NFC West. But with the Rams’ 19-9 win over the New York Jets and the Seahawks’ crushing 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, Seattle (8-7) fell one game back of the Rams (9-6) with two weeks left in the regular season. The Seahawks also were officially eliminated from wild-card contention on Sunday due to the Washington Commanders’ victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.
That leaves Seattle with only one realistic path to winning the NFC West and advancing to the playoffs:
• The Rams would need to lose to the Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at home on Saturday night.
• The Seahawks would need to beat the Rams on the road in the Jan. 4 or 5 regular-season finale.
Under this scenario, it wouldn’t matter whether the Seahawks win or lose against the Chicago Bears (4-11) on the road Thursday night.
That’s because if the Seahawks beat the Bears, the Rams lose to the Cardinals and the Seahawks beat the Rams, then Seattle would finish 10-7 and Los Angeles would finish 9-8.
And if the Seahawks lose to the Bears, the Rams lose to the Cardinals and the Seahawks beat the Rams, then Seattle and Los Angeles would both finish 9-8. The first tiebreaker would be their head-to-head matchups, which would be split. The second tiebreaker would be their division records, which Seattle would win. The Seahawks would finish 4-2 within the NFC West, while the Rams would finish 3-3.
A very unlikely path
Technically, there’s still a path for the Seahawks to win the NFC West if the Rams beat the Cardinals on Saturday, but it’s extremely unlikely. Here’s what it would entail:
• The Seahawks would need to beat the Bears on Thursday night.
• The Seahawks would need to beat the Rams on Jan. 4 or 5.
• A highly unlikely combination of other results would need to go Seattle’s way over the next two weeks to swing the strength-of-victory tiebreaker (more on that below) in the Seahawks’ favor.
Here’s an explanation of why it’s very unlikely Seattle would win a tiebreaker over Los Angeles if the Rams beat the Cardinals:
If the Seahawks beat the Bears, the Rams beat the Cardinals and the Seahawks beat the Rams, then Seattle and Los Angeles would finish tied at 10-7. That would prompt the NFL’s tiebreaker criteria to take effect, which would almost certainly result in the Rams winning the division, as detailed below:
1. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups, which would be split. The Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 9, and in this scenario the Seahawks would have beaten the Rams in Week 18 to even the season series.
2. The second tiebreaker is the teams’ division records. In this scenario, both teams would finish 4-2 within the NFC West.
3. The third tiebreaker is the teams’ record against common opponents. In this scenario, both teams would finish 7-5 against the 12 common opponents they faced.
4. The fourth tiebreaker is the teams’ conference records. In this scenario, both teams would finish 6-6 against NFC opponents.
5. That would bring it to the fifth tiebreaker, which is strength of victory – the combined win percentage of the opponents each team beat. The Rams currently have the advantage, holding a .448 strength of victory compared to Seattle’s .425, according to NFL GSIS. Under this scenario, it would take a highly unlikely combination of results going the Seahawks’ way in order to swing the strength of victory tiebreaker in Seattle’s favor.
So for the Seahawks, it’s pretty straightforward: The Cardinals need to beat the Rams this week and the Seahawks need to beat the Rams in Week 18.
Anything less than that and Seattle will likely miss the playoffs for a second straight year.
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